US Midterm Elections 2026: Journalist Safety Measures
In Part One of this Safety Assessment for journalists, we discussed which scenarios were most likely to affect media workers as they covered the US Midterm Elections on 3 November. We produced a table of threats, with the most likely scenario at the top, running down to the least likely at number eight.
Preparing for the Post-Election Period
The 2026 Midterm elections present a complex threat environment for journalists. The data shows that hostility toward the press has become normalised across the political spectrum, with both right-wing and left-wing movements capable of translating online polarisation into tangible harm.
The Superforecasting methodology employed here prioritises evidence-based probability over alarmism during the election cycle. The most probable threats are not necessarily the most dramatic: selective access restrictions, legal intimidation and digital intrusion pose a more immediate risk than direct election suppression or mass violence. However, the Trump administration’s rhetoric means newsrooms cannot ignore other physical threats such as hostile crowds, arrest and sophisticated digital surveillance, even if these are assessed as less likely and are expected to remain outliers rather than the norm.
The focus of this piece is the election cycle, but the immediate post-election environment should not be forgotten. If the results are disputed or perceived as illegitimate by significant political actors, this could create further opportunities for protests, mobilisation and hostile action. There is also the potential for crowd action around focal points, such as the reconvening of Congress on 3 January 2027. Whatever happens during the Midterms, news organisations should remain alert to how the security environment may evolve in the days and weeks that follow.
Conclusion
The 2026 US Midterm elections are likely to present a complex and unpredictable operating environment for journalists. Historical precedent shows that political events can directly threaten the media, while current polarisation and disputes over election integrity add further uncertainty.
The purpose of this assessment is not to predict exactly what will happen, but to identify the scenarios that warrant preparation. For newsrooms, the priority should be to prepare for the higher-probability risks while maintaining contingency plans for lower-probability events that could have serious consequences.
Effective preparation will not eliminate risk, but it can give journalists and news organisations more options when circumstances change.
