US Midterm Elections 2026: Assessing the Risks for Journalists

The United States is scheduled to hold its Congressional midterm elections on 3 November 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are due to be contested, alongside thousands of state and local elections. The outcome will determine which political party controls each chamber of Congress for the following two years, making the elections highly consequential for the Trump administration and its ability to advance its political agenda.

For journalists, however, the significance of the 2026 Midterms extends beyond the political outcome. The election is taking place in an increasingly polarised environment in which hostility towards the media, political violence, civil unrest, online harassment, and legal threats could affect the safety and operating environment of journalists.

Heightened Threat Environment for Journalists

Polarisation and Hostility Towards the Media

The 2020 election cycle and the events surrounding the January 2021 attack on the US Capitol provide an important precedent. Journalists covering the Capitol riot were threatened, assaulted and had equipment damaged or stolen. The US Press Freedom Tracker has documented nearly 20 journalists assaulted during the attack.

The broader environment has also evolved since 2020. Political rhetoric around election integrity remains highly contentious, while federal involvement in election administration and the potential presence of federal law-enforcement personnel around election sites have become subjects of political and legal debate.

Hostility towards members of the press in the United States is fueled in part by a perception among some political groups that journalists and news organisations are politically biased or actively working against their interests. Inflammatory political rhetoric, combined with highly polarised and algorithm-driven social media environments, can amplify these perceptions and contribute to an operating environment in which journalists become targets rather than observers.

This creates a range of potential risks for journalists covering the Midterms, from harassment and intimidation to physical violence, civil unrest, digital attacks and potential disruption associated with law-enforcement or political activity.

Election Integrity and Political Mobilisation

The political environment also creates uncertainty around how supporters of different political movements may respond to the election campaign and its eventual outcome. Previous election cycles demonstrate that disputed election results and allegations of electoral fraud can contribute to mobilisation, protests, and confrontation.

President Trump continues to question aspects of US election administration and has repeatedly raised concerns about election security and alleged vulnerabilities in the voting system. Whether such rhetoric translates into significant disruption cannot be known in advance, but it is a factor that news organisations should consider when planning assignments.

Federal Law-Enforcement Activity

There is also a potential additional consideration around federal law-enforcement activity near polling locations. In February 2026, senior political figures publicly discussed the possibility of ICE being present around polling locations, though the Trump administration has subsequently stated that ICE is not planning operations specifically targeting polling places.

While rhetoric does not necessarily translate into action, the issue highlights the uncertainty surrounding the election environment and the need for newsrooms to monitor developments closely.

Newsrooms must therefore remain prepared for a range of eventualities. The key question is not whether every potential scenario will occur, but which risks are sufficiently plausible and consequential to warrant preparation.

Risk Priorities and Likelihood

To help newsroom leaders prioritise their preparations, we have created a risk forecast using historical incident data, current reporting and existing research, supported by AI-assisted analysis. We have adopted a prediction methodology championed by the Superforecasting Good Judgement Project, adapting its approach to assess the risks most relevant to journalists and news organisations during the 2026 US Midterm elections. The aim is to identify which potential disruptions are most plausible, easiest to execute and most relevant to newsroom planning. Given the potentially high impact of several scenarios, however, a lower likelihood should not be taken to mean that a risk can be disregarded.

To arrive at the percentages and threat levels, we considered the strongest base-rate evidence from prior actions and incidents, then adjusted these assessments upward where rhetoric had already translated into action, and downward where courts, states, institutions or other practical constraints created meaningful resistance. The threat level labels reflect these probability assessments: higher-probability and easier-to-execute actions are classified as “High,” mid-range or conditional actions as “Medium-High” or “Medium,” and the most legally or operationally constrained outcomes as “Low.”

In short, the table reflects not just whether a threat is alarming, but whether it is both plausible and realistic in the real world.

Conclusion

The 2026 US Midterm elections are likely to present a complex and unpredictable operating environment for journalists. Historical precedent demonstrates that political events in the United States can result in direct threats to the media, while the current level of political polarisation and continued disputes around election integrity create additional uncertainty.

For news organisations, the appropriate response is not to predict exactly what will happen, but to identify the scenarios that could have the greatest consequences and prepare accordingly.

The risks identified in this assessment range from hostility and harassment through to civil unrest, physical violence, digital threats and potential disruption involving law enforcement or organised political groups. Some are highly likely but relatively manageable; others may be less likely but could have serious consequences if they occur.

The second part of RiskPal’s US Midterm Elections 2026 safety assessment will focus on what news organisations can do to prepare. It will examine practical measures that can reduce risk before journalists are deployed, support them while they are working in the field, and help organisations respond when circumstances change.

Effective preparation does not eliminate risk, but it can give journalists and the organisations supporting them more options when conditions become difficult.